IADS Exclusive - Global Department Store Monitor (2024-2025): navigating the ‘vibecession’

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Mar 2026
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Anchita Ranka
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Annual Department store results

The 2026 edition of the IADS Global Department Store Monitor covers department stores’ financial results from fiscal year 2024-2025, a year marked technological transformation, rising geopolitical tensions and subsequent effects on currency exchanges and consumer confidence.

Launched in 2021 by Dr. Christopher Knee, the IADS Global Department Store Monitor purpose is to enable data comparison of department stores’ financial performance, especially to compare pre- and post-COVID-19 performance. The goal is to make sense of a complex and culturally central sector characterised by changes in ownership, privatisation, and mergers. To achieve that, and to provide a benchmark for global department store stakeholders, the monitor reviews 58 department stores with publicly available information.

The report includes current and fixed (2021) exchange rates, to isolate the impact of sales growth from the effect of exchange rate changes. This feature is increasingly relevant as real and nominal sales growth have diverged in a turbulent economic and political landscape. To account for nonuniform accounting standards, the broken calendar year system ensures that retailers results are being compared across the same world events, offering a clear overview of their performance.

Context: macro growth vs. consumer caution

The global economy in fiscal year 2024-2025 performed better than expected, especially in major markets. However, the economic ‘soft landing’ at the beginning of the fiscal year transitioned to renewed volatility driven by Donald Trump’s re-election as U.S. President in November 2024, and a return to aggressive protectionism later in the period following his entry into office in early 2025. See-sawing tariffs and bi- and multilateral trade negotiations added uncertainty to already strained supply chains.

The geopolitical landscape fractured further due to conflicts and election-driven volatility. The war between Russia and Ukraine, which started in 2022, continued, while Israel launched a full-scale invasion of the Gaza Strip in March 2025 which led to a famine-driven humanitarian crisis and over 67,000 civilians killed. Compounded by regional geopolitical shifts and tensions, global consumer confidence saw a ‘vibecession’, a disconnect between improving macroeconomic indicators such as reduced inflation and steady growth, versus consumers’ negative perception of the economy.

Department stores also went through major transformations during FY 2024-2025:

Fiscal Year 2024-2025 financial results: middling stability

For the retail sector, this fiscal year was one of cautious normalisation: while retail sales grew, consumers remained price-sensitive and value-driven, forcing retailers to rely heavily on promotions and AI-driven efficiency to protect margins.

Broad observations from the IADS Global Department Store Monitor for FY 2024-2025 indicate that:

  • Across a sample of 58 department stores globally, the average year-on-year total sales growth rose to +0.63% from -1.6% last year, highlighting a moderate normalisation after the post-COVID-19 peak.
  • The share of department store sales in their owners’ total retail sales remains similar to last year and close to pre-COVID-19 levels.
  • The volatile geopolitical and economic landscape amplified the impact of currency fluctuations on department store performance. While many retailers reported sales growth in local currency terms (reflecting resilient underlying demand), these gains often evaporated when converted to reporting currencies like the Euro or US Dollar due to unfavourable exchange rates. This currency volatility also reshaped international tourism flows, creating a divide: countries with weaker currencies attracted a surge of high-spending tourists, boosting their retail sectors, while those with stronger or less competitive currencies faced a leakage of domestic spending to cheaper destinations.
  • In terms of regional trends, in the Americas, Latin American department stores were resilient while the US market struggled with significant volatility. Latin American retailers, including Falabella and Liverpool, leveraged high consumer confidence and multichannel adaptations to achieve growth despite currency appreciation. In contrast, US retailers faced a restrictive economic environment marked by cautious spending, leading to contraction and restructuring for major players like Macy’sDillard’s, and Kohl’s.
  • The Asia-Pacific region was defined by sharp regional divergences, contrasting structural challenges in Greater China with growth in India and Japan. While China and Hong Kong underwent a reset driven by the property crisis and weak consumption, India emerged as a growth leader buoyed by rising discretionary spending. Japan experienced a volatile boom fueled by a weak yen and tourism, achieving record sales that masked domestic fragility and rural decline. In South Korea and Southeast Asia, retailers navigated household debt and shrinking disposable incomes by pivoting toward experiential luxury and omnichannel strategies, with retailers in the Philippines pursuing expansion despite a cautious consumer environment.
  • Europe was marked by a distinct north-south divide. Northern Europe and Scandinavia struggled with currency weakness that fueled inflation rather than tourism, leading to stagnating sales and strategic restructuring for players like Stockmann. Conversely, Southern Europe thrived on a tourism super-cycle, with retailers in Spain, Italy, and Greece leveraging a weak euro to attract high-spending non-EU visitors, boosting sales for El Corte Inglés and Attica. In the UK, the absence of tax-free shopping dampened international spending, yielding mixed results.
  • However, the IADS sample also showed a separate trend where retailers can be divided into three permeable buckets: emerging markets and Southern Europe that saw organic growth, strong currency effects in East Asia, and cautious consumer sentiment in mature markets. China and Hong Kong faced a deep structural reset given macroeconomic conditions.

I. Organic growth: emerging markets and Southern Europe

Latin American resilience
Overall, Latin America’s performance was one of the best, with many department stores growing despite currency appreciation in Chilean and Mexican pesos (CLP and MXN). Department stores were able to capture some of the spend resulting from high consumer confidence in Latin America during FY 2024-2025, through strategic adaptations.

In South America, Falabella (+10.2%) achieved significant growth in 2024. Peru emerged as a key contributor to regional revenue contributing 28% by maintaining competitive position through multichannel strategy including stores, institutional sales and e-commerce. Falabella's management also expressed confidence in the company's resilience against US-China trade tensions, citing limited direct exposure due to its concentrated operations in Chile, Peru, and Colombia. Cencosud Paris (+5.4%) in Chile saw an upwards sales trend and a hefty rise in profit driven by its supermarket operations and increased online sales. Ripley (+8.3%) strengthened its sales performance and profitability, driven by retail growth in Chile and Peru, improved inventory management, and reduced promotional activity.

In Mexico, El Palacio de Hierro (+2.4%) posted a small retail sales growth after multiple years of double digit growth post-COVID-19. Its profit increase was driven by the successful launch of its mobile app, opening its 15th large-format store and controlling operating expenses. Similarly, Liverpool (+9.6%) also grew sales and profit, and acquired 49.9% of Nordstrom in December 2024.

India’s domestic drive
Despite the weak rupee, Indian consumers shopped international beauty brands, watches, and premium fashion. Unlike Japan or Europe, India did not see an influx of shopping tourists to offset this currency weakness for structural reasons. Instead, the weak rupee made overseas travel and education more expensive for wealthy Indians, potentially diverting some spending back home.

Lifestyle (+6%) gained in both sales and profits driven by its market presence in India’s transforming retail sector. Its growth is tied to broader consumer trends, with India leading discretionary spending in the Asia-Pacific region and a new generation of affluent, digitally engaged consumers driving demand for premium retail. Shoppers Stop (+5.2%) saw a similar increase in sales but slightly reduced profit, partly because Amazon sold its 4% stake in the company.

Essential spending vs. expansion: the South and Southeast Asian paradox
In Sri Lanka, Odel (-19.1%) dropped sales and deepened losses despite inflation stabilising, and a resurgence in tourism. The market remained reliant on essential spending as households rebuilt purchasing power after the economic crisis. In Indonesia, Matahari (-2%) dipped in sales but rose in profit by closing two stores to optimise its business. The Indonesian retail landscape struggled amid declining purchasing power and potential trade war.

In Singapore and Malaysia, Parkson Retail Asia (-2.9%) dipped in sales and profit and Isetan Singapore, a subsidiary of Japan's Mitsukoshi Holdings, announced the closure of one store. Singapore’s retail sector navigated significant volatility marked by sharp declines and subsequent rebounds during FY 2024-2025. Compared to Hong Kong, Singapore’s retail environment proved more robust despite structural challenges in both markets.

In the Philippines, SM (+5%) and Robinson’s Retail (+3.6%) saw their sales and profits increase. SM announced a USD 9 billion expansion plan including opening three new malls, with the goal of reaching 100 locations by 2027. In mid-June, DFI Retail Group sold its Robinsons Retail stake while maintaining strategic brand partnerships. Though the Philippine retail industry posted top-line growthconsumer sentiment was pessimistic, resulting in spending on essentials and convenience food but curtailing non-essential purchases.

Southern Europe: outperforming continental stagnation
The Southern European retail industry was resilient, driven by tourism, with the strongest growth in inbound spending found in Spain (+25%), Greece (+25%), and Italy (+20%) in addition to recovering domestic sentiment. Underpinned by the weak euro, this acted as a stimulus for high-spending non-EU tourists which compensated for the currency devaluation.

In Italy, Rinascente (+4.3%) increased sales and was divested by Central Retail Corporation to be operated via their European structure. It also invested 40 million euros to transform a historic Milanese cinema into a new beauty destination, expanding its beauty offering. In Spain, El Corte Inglés (+2.3%) increased sales and considerably rose profits. It developed a new strategic plan to revitalise operations and enhance its competitive edge, as well as reorganised its top management structure. In Greece, Attica (+8.8%) saw an increase in sales and profit especially driven by non-EU spending which rose 9% during the first half of the year. However, it was fined 400,000 euros for misleading pricing practices on a cosmetic product.

 II. East Asia: currency effects and structural reset

The yen paradox: record profits and the looming correction
Japan’s retail performance in FY 2024-2025 was characterised by a weak yen driving up retail and luxury sales unsustainably. H2O (+8%), J Front Retailing (+10.1%), Takashimaya (+6.9%), Isetan Mitsukoshi (+6.5%), Marui (+8.2%), Kintetsu (+6.9%), and Tokyu (+1.7%) all rose sales and profits considerably. Tobu (-0.7%) is the only department store that saw a slight drop in sales but still posted profits. For J Front Retailing, their department store portfolio (Daimaru Matsuzakaya) represented over 60% of revenues, achieving a 6.2% year-on-year sales growth pronounced in flagship locations while regional stores faced challenges. Despite record profits and revenue, Takashimaya’s growth was driven by flagship stores in tourist-heavy locations resulting in its withdrawal from regional locations. Notably, Marui issued a issued a direct digital green bond using Securitize to advance its sustainability and funding strategy as well as launched a museum-supporting credit card.

Japanese department stores achieved a record 5.75 trillion yen in sales for 2024, topping pre-pandemic levels. Duty-free sales set a record for the second straight year driven by multiple factors, including the return of Chinese travellers, a weak yen boosting luxury purchases, and strong domestic demand for high-end goods. However, there was a clear urban-rural divide as several prefectures lost their last department stores despite the overall market recovery.

After four consecutive years of growth relying on tourism, this became a vulnerability as tax-free sales plummeted 40% year-on-year by mid-2025, with average tourist spend dropping. The appreciation of the yen and persistent inflation further dampened demand, resulting in a 7.3% decline in department store sales and exposing the risks of over-dependence on luxury and international visitors.

Thailand’s tourism squeeze
Consumer confidence in Thailand was volatile as a result of crippling household debt (almost 90% of GDP), the cost of living and political instability, including military confrontations with Cambodia over border temples in December 2025. As a result, consumers became highly price-sensitive, despite the retail sector expanding by 6% and the government’s digital cash stimulus of 140 billion baht in 2024.

Thailand also faced a direct negative impact from the weak Japanese yen: In the first half of 2025, the number of South Korean visitors to Thailand dropped by 17% while Japan continued to see record inflows. While high-income consumers went to Japan, Vietnam overtook Thailand for budget-conscious tourists, which was cheaper due to the strong Thai baht relative to regional currencies.

Central Retail (+5.7%) closed 2024 with a rise in sales and profits. It relaunched Central Chidlom as “The Store of Bangkok,”drew growth through omnichannel strategies and strategically pivoted away from Europe, divesting La Rinascente, to focus on Southeast Asian markets. While consumers reacted positively to stimulus, growth was inorganic due to structural debt.

Lipstick effect in South Korea
South Korea’s retail landscape was defined by deepening market polarisation and shrinking disposable incomes for the middle-class. Lotte (-3.9%) dropped sales and profit despite sales at its Jamsil branch surpassing three trillion won. The branch is undergoing its first major refurbishment in 37 years. Hyundai (-0.5%) also dropped sales but managed to increase profits slightly. It launched a platform for K-fashion expansion, positioning itself as an incubator for local fashion, as well as Connect Hyundai, a new concept combining department stores, outlets, and art galleries in Busan. Hanwha Galleria (+12.6%) rose in sales but faced losses. The rise in sales was driven by the growth of Five Guys Korea, operated by Hanwha Galleria's subsidiary, however it was subsequently sold while the core department store business remained sluggish. Shinsegae (+3.4%) rose sales but fell in profits. It partnered with Alibaba, integrating advanced e-commerce capabilities to better compete with both domestic and international digital players. It also rebranded its flagship Sogong-dong branch, which despite some initial confusion over English naming, was a commitment to attracting a broader customer base.

South Korea was the biggest inbound tourist market for Japan, leaking domestic consumption due to the weaker yen. However, the Korean won also won against the dollar, positioning South Korea as an alternative to Japan for international tourists, as Japan became crowded and prices began to adjust in early 2025. The strained middle class shifted toward affordable alternatives and luxury beauty products, creating a ‘lipstick effect,’ where consumers favour smaller luxury indulgences during economic downturns. South Korean luxury beauty sales surged by 24% while fashion growth slowed considerably. Department stores revamped their beauty counters, maintaining strong performance through their beauty segments despite overall market challenges. In Myeongdong district, Lotte and Shinsegae faced off in flagship renovation with Lotte emphasising Korean culture and Shinsegae focusing on luxury expansion. Shinsegae’s “House of Shinsegae” concept stood out for its immersive, high-end experiences that resonated with consumers

In between currency and structural reset: China and Hong Kong slump
Driven by the property crisis, high youth unemployment and low domestic consumption, China’s retail landscape went through a deep reset in FY 2024-2025. In China, Parkson Retail Group (-13.6%) significantly dropped in sales and profit, though it remained positive. However, Parkson’s Chinese subsidiaries renewed their tenancy agreements for ten years. Similarly, Dashang (-5.2%) dropped sales but managed to increase profits driven by the home appliance categoryRainbow (-2.5%) dropped sales and profit with the Shenzhen location shutting down in 2025Wangfujing (-7%), Maoye (-13.2%) and Wushang (-6.6%) all dropped in sales and profits. However, Wushang Group’s online orders surged 77% and number of online users increased by 25%New World Department Store (-48.6%) dropped sales as well, however this number is inflated due to changes in accounting for discontinued operations. There were also talks of the parent company selling the K11 Art Mall in Hong Kong to combat mounting losses amid the Hong Kong property slump.

In Hong Kong, Wing On (-10.41%) saw a drop in sales and significant losses. Hong Kong saw retail sales fall consistently for over a year due to the rivalry with Shenzhen, where currency depreciation made shopping cheaper for both Hong Kong locals and mainland Chinese consumers.

 III. Cautious consumer sentiment in mature markets

US market volatility
While the exchange rate to the euro remained relatively stable, US consumer confidence was volatile due to high prices and interest rates. Despite a post-election peak in November 2024, this resulted in cautious consumer spending.

In the US, Nordstrom (+2.4%) increased sales after a decline in the previous year, along with a considerable rise in profit, driven by an expansion in private labelsstrong holiday performance and being acquired by Liverpool. Macy’s Group (-3.5%) reduced sales and profit with activist investors urging the group to spin off Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury in December 2024. Bloomingdale’s opened a fourth Bloomie’s location while shuttering full-line stores including San Francisco, with plans to open 15 more Bloomie’s and outlet stores in the next three years.

Dillard’s (-4%) also declined in sales and profit due to a tough holiday quarter in a challenging consumer environment and subsequently pivoted to focus on luxury shoppers through initiatives like The Coterie Shop. Kohl’s (-7.1%) saw a steep decline in sales and profit despite launching a family-focused brand platform and same-day delivery. It restructured its real estate by closing 27 stores and an e-commerce fulfilment centre by April 2024, shifting to store-based order fulfilment. GIC Private Ltd., a sovereign wealth fund representing Singapore, acquired 5% ownership in Kohl’s.

Stagnation in Scandinavia and Northern Europe
The retail sector in Scandinavia and Northern Europe faced stagnation, struggling against the dual headwinds of persistently weak currencies and plummeting consumer sentiment. Unlike the tourism-led boom seen in Japan, the depreciation of the Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone failed to generate a sufficient offset in foreign spending; instead, it exacerbated inflation on imported goods and squeezed retailer margins. European consumers were optimistic but not spending on non-essentials, leading households to prioritise essentials and value.

In Denmark, Magasin du Nord (+5.4%) increased sales and profit. It succeeded with the introduction of a new, smaller store format and reported high holiday season traffic with every fourth Danish household purchasing Christmas gifts at its stores. In Sweden, Ahlens (+6.8%) increased sales. In July 2024, its parent company Axcent of Scandinavia acquired INNO in Belgium. NK (+8.8%) saw an increase in sales and profit.

Tallinn Kaubamaja (-0.3%) slightly decreased both sales and profit. It finally secured approval for major renovation including underground parking and urban corridor development, after a decade-long dispute. Stockmann (-1.2%) slightly decreased both sales and profit. Its owner Lindex Group is considering selling Stockmann to the minority shareholderNordic Retail Partners, and exploring other strategic alternatives as it undergoes restructuring.

Switzerland’s reset: structural shifts and mixed-use
The Swiss retail industry faced a strong Franc problem which leaked domestic consumption while consumer confidence remained negative.

Jelmoli (-1.8%) closed its Bahnhofstrasse location and ceased airport operations, marking the end after 125 years. Manor is set to occupy 13,000 square metres of the renovated building from 2027 as part of Swiss Prime Site's mixed-use development plan. Coop Group (+0.6%) slightly increased sales and profit. Its performance was driven by gaining market share in supermarkets and specialist formats, with strong demand for both the Prix Garanti private label and sustainable products.

The UK’s divide: innovation in a tax-disadvantaged market
The UK retail narrative in 2024 was dominated by the absence of tax-free shopping, disadvantaging it compared to Paris and Milan. Despite a relatively weak pound which should have attracted shoppers, the UK remained the only major European country without tax-free shopping for tourists, with Chinese tourists explicitly ranking the UK as their "least popular" European shopping destination in 2024.

Marks & Spencer (+9.3%) considerably increased sales and profit. It proposed a redevelopment of its Oxford Street flagship store to meet modern retail needs. It was also the victim of a cyber-attack by teenage hacker gang Scattered Spider in April 2025, which required six weeks of halting online orders and dented consumer confidenceJohn Lewis (+1.4%) increased sales while decreasing profit. It reinvested revenue by reviving its Never Knowingly Undersold price promise which led to a surge in Black Friday interest online, covering 25 major competitors and added Klarna as BNPL provider. In March 2026, it also announced a 2% staff bonusLiberty (+4%) increased sales and profit after betting on its own private label beauty brand and enhancing personalisation. Fortnum & Mason (+4.8%) increased sales and profit. In June 2025, it announced plans to expand in the UK outside London for the first time in its 300+ year history. It also launched its first-ever membership programme offering exclusive benefits, seasonal gifts, and privileged access to events for GBP 100 annually. Earlier in 2025, it also launched 24/7 rapid delivery and subscription delivery services to enhance customer experience.

Selfridges (-7.2%) considerably decreased sales while increasing profits significantly. After the arrival of new CEO André Maeder in August 2024, Selfridges’ strategy pivoted to exclusive partnerships, immersive retail experiences, and sustainability initiatives through its ReSelfridges programme. It also launched a loyalty programme that rewards customers for purchases and time spent engaging with store experiences. Harrods (-0.4%) saw a slight decrease in sales and almost halving of profit amid being sued by former owner Mohamed al-Fayed’s alleged sexual abuse victims. It settled over 250 claims and set up a compensation fund for survivors. In December 2024, hundreds of Harrods staff including shop, restaurant, kitchen, and cleaning workers, voted to strike during peak holiday season, citing deteriorating pay and conditions despite high executive compensation, further impacting sales. Fenwick (-3.9%) saw a decrease in sales and improved losses while still staying in the red. It brought in restructuring experts in March 2025 to grapple with consistent losses. Later in the year, it also launched its first ever loyalty programme MyFenwick offering tiered rewards and online and in-store exclusive experiences.

Australia: Consolidation and realignment
In FY 2024-2025, the Australian retail sector faced volatile pessimism. However, the weak Australian Dollar provided a silver lining by improving affordability for inbound tourists and theoretically keeping domestic spending onshore by making overseas travel more expensive. However, this potential boost was largely negated by persistently negative consumer sentiment as households battled high interest rates and inflation . Consequently, rather than splurging on discretionary items, Australians prioritised essentials and mortgage repayments.

Woolworth’s (+4.2%) rose both sales and profit. It stopped selling Australia Day merchandise, due to its colonial origins which resulted in Australia's main centre-right opposition party calling for a boycott of Woolworth’s. David Jones was sold by Woolworth’s in 2023. Myer (+12.5%) also rose sales and profit. It finalise the merger with Premier Investments in January 2025, integrating Premier’s fashion brands into Myer's network of 56 stores. Myer also divested three private labels to rationalise operations.


Conclusion and going further: What to expect from Fiscal Year 2025-2026 and beyond

Data collection and financial reporting for the fiscal year 2025–2026 are currently in progress. As retailers aggregate results, several macroeconomic and geopolitical developments have emerged as definitive drivers of performance for the period:

  • The second year of the Trump administration has entrenched a protectionist agenda, characterised by aggressive tariffs that are actively restructuring global retail supply chains. Beyond direct cost implications, the policy whiplash has introduced significant volatility, complicating long-term forecasting for the industry. Concurrently, the escalation of conflict in the Middle East following direct military engagement between Israel, the US, and Iran has further strained global logistics corridors and impacted key macroeconomic indicators.
  • A stark divergence in regional performance is evident in East Asia. Japanese retailers are contending with a sharp downturn precipitated by a diplomatically driven boycott by Chinese tourists. This contraction has exposed the sector's historic over-reliance on inbound luxury spending. Conversely, this demand has been displaced rather than destroyed; South Korean department stores are reporting record-high foreign sales as Chinese consumers redirect their travel and spending to Seoul.
  • The Indian luxury market continues to mature, highlighted by the milestone opening of the Galeries Lafayette flagship in Mumbai in November 2025. This strategic entry underscores the region's growth potential, with further expansion into Delhi anticipated in the coming years through the retailer’s partnership with Aditya Birla Group.
  • The obsolescence of traditional SEO in favour of Generative Engine Optimisation (GEO) has altered e-commerce traffic models. Major platforms are now prioritising AI-generated answers over blue links. Retailers are adapting their digital storefronts for machine readability to ensure that their products are recommended by AI agents.
  • Physical retail is experiencing a renaissance of quality over quantity. While total store counts are stabilising, retailers are closing underperforming locations to fund experiential flagships.

The next edition of the Global Department Store Monitor will examine the results from FY 2025-2026. However, the volatile landscape described above suggests that department stores must prioritise omnichannel ecosystems and agile responses to shifting consumer behaviours to navigate the complexities of the 2025–2026 cycle.



Credits: Anchita Ranka