IADS Press Release: Global Retail Risk Index

Navigating global instability: IADS introduces the first Global Retail Risk Index for retail decision-makers 

The International Association of Department Stores (IADS) launches its first Global Retail Risk Index, a new strategic tool to compare regional risks and guide expansion and investment decisions. 

The IADS Global Retail Risk Index, an unprecedented ranking of nine major world regions according to their level of retail risk, provides executives and investors with a comparative instrument of regional environments to inform their choices of establishment and development. 

An unprecedented barometer for unstable times 

Wars reshaping maritime routes, fluctuating tariffs, climate shocks paralysing logistics, and a growing divide between American and Chinese regulatory spheres: retailers operate in a context where cross-border volatility can, in a single quarter, erode margins and derail expansion projects. Until now, no unified tool, centred on retail-specific issues, has existed to measure where these risks are most acute. Yet retail disruptions have multiplied: new US tariffs on Chinese products have forced Macy’s, Nordstrom and Dillard’s to raise the price of their footwear by up to 4%, with a similar increase in apparel, while the slowdown in port traffic requires a rethinking of logistical solutions. For these reasons, the IADS Global Retail Risk Index aims to provide a consolidated view of regional conditions, based on the most recent data available, enabling retailers to compare and anticipate. 

A robust methodology 

The IADS Global Retail Risk Index aggregates open-source data from the World Bank and recognised third-party indices. It ranks nine regions of the world according to their “favourability” for retail investment, by analysing 31 indicators grouped into eight categories of risk: economic, demographic, business, supply chain, tourism, infrastructure, public perception and climate. 

Each indicator, updated annually, is assessed quantitatively or qualitatively, then integrated into a composite score. A lower regional score signals lower retail risk, reflecting a stronger capacity to absorb new commercial exposure. Detailed regional reports complement this approach, while acknowledging certain methodological limits, including the subjectivity of the notion of “favourability” and the static nature of historical data in a rapidly changing geopolitical environment. 

Despite these limits, the IADS has found that no comparable index exists at the global level to provide a complete and relevant strategic perspective for the retail sector. 

Findings of the 2025 edition  

• North America: the most favourable region, thanks to solid economic, logistical, infrastructural and environmental fundamentals, despite demographic ageing and income inequalities. 
• East Asia and Pacific: the second most attractive region, driven by economic and logistical performance, but hindered by persistent gaps in literacy, female participation and climate indicators. 
• European Union (including Switzerland and the United Kingdom): third place, supported by strong FDI flows, high female participation and stable governance, despite inflation and an ageing workforce. 
• Latin America and the Caribbean / South Asia: moderate risk profile, combining favourable demographic dynamics with weaknesses in governance, infrastructure and business financing. 
• Eastern Europe and Central Asia / Middle East and North Africa: low to moderate risk acceptability, making expansion possible but selective. 
• Sub-Saharan Africa: the least favourable region, requiring great caution, despite strengths in renewable energy and female labour market participation. 

In parallel, specific matrices provide detailed risk profiles of the United States and China, reflecting their divergent regulatory and logistical realities. 

A reference set to evolve 

This first report constitutes a foundation for strategic analysis of the risks specific to each region. From the next edition onwards, the index will make it possible to establish temporal comparisons and track the evolution of retail investment conditions worldwide. 

The 2025 edition of the IADS Global Retail Risk Index can be downloaded by clicking here.

The International Association of Department Stores (IADS) is the only expert body specialising globally in the department store retail format. Consisting of leading department store members worldwide, the Association serves as an international network, facilitating exchange and communication among its members. It also conducts research to address the current challenges of department stores and provide actionable insights for its members.   

Today, IADS permanent members include Beijing Hualian Group (PRC), Bloomingdale’s (USA), Boyner (Turkey), Breuninger (Germany), Chalhoub Group (UAE), Centro Beco (Venezuela), El Corte Inglés (Spain), El Palacio de Hierro (Mexico), Falabella (Chile, Colombia and Peru), Galeries Lafayette (France), John Lewis & Partners (UK), Lifestyle International Holding (Hong Kong), Magasin du Nord (Denmark), Manor (Switzerland), The Mall Group (Thailand), TSUM Kyiv (Ukraine). These retail leaders are joined by a network of other department stores and retail companies as corresponding members. 

Together, the IADS members, all key players in their respective markets, create a landscape of diverse business models and cultures, representing more than €40.5 billion in cumulated annual turnover, achieved through over 549 stores with 251,000 associates in 28 countries.  

Through its activities and partnerships with NellyRodi, Retail Hub, RH-ISAC and Newstores, the Association constantly stays up to date on its members’ questions and challenges. It generates solution-driven problem-solving processes for its members, preparing them to face the future of the retail industry. 

Press Contact: IADS, press@iads.org  

Read the full press release below:

Read the full press release, in French, below: