What: UK retail sales unexpectedly increased in September 2025, reflecting shifting consumer behaviour and sector resilience.

Why it is important:  The unexpected growth underscores the importance of accurate data and flexible planning, as seen in recent revisions and weather-driven sales shifts.

UK retail sales saw an unexpected 0.5% increase in September 2025, signalling renewed sector resilience amid economic uncertainty and anticipation of the upcoming Budget. This positive result follows a summer characterised by evolving consumer preferences, with a notable shift toward in-store shopping and greater adoption of technology, as reported in July 2025. Despite inflationary pressures, a significant portion of shoppers indicated plans to increase spending, supporting the sector’s recovery. Earlier in the year, non-food and department stores led growth, although food sales remained subdued due to pricing challenges. However, the retail landscape has been marked by volatility, with sales growth slowing in May as consumers became more selective and regulatory costs rose. The reliability of retail data has also been questioned, with the Office for National Statistics revising down first-half figures in September, complicating forecasting and planning. Additionally, favorable weather in August boosted sales in seasonal categories, highlighting the increasing impact of climate on retail performance. These developments underscore the need for retailers to remain agile and responsive to rapidly shifting market dynamics.

IADS Notes: In July 2025, Retail Week highlighted increased in-store shopping and technology use, while March 2025 saw growth in non-food categories. By June, sales growth slowed as discretionary spending tightened. The Financial Times in September 2025 reported on ONS data revisions, and Retail Week emphasised the impact of favourable weather on sales, reinforcing the sector’s need for agility and robust data strategies.

UK retail sales unexpectedly rose by 0.5% in September