What: NRF forecasts U.S. holiday retail sales will surpass $1 trillion for the first time in 2025, with growth of 3.7% to 4.2% over last year despite economic headwinds.

Why it is important: The shift toward experiential and curated retail strategies is essential as traditional discounting loses effectiveness in a saturated market.

The US retail sector is poised to reach a significant milestone in 2025, with holiday sales expected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, reflecting a projected growth rate of 3.7% to 4.2% over the previous year. This achievement comes despite a challenging economic environment marked by persistent inflation, rising tariffs, and the threat of a federal government shutdown. Consumers remain fundamentally resilient, continuing to drive economic activity even as they become more value-conscious, prioritising holiday gifts while seeking savings in nonessential categories. Retailers are responding to these pressures by streamlining operations and scaling back seasonal hiring, with projections for temporary workers at their lowest since 2008. The evolving landscape is further complicated by generational shifts in spending, as younger consumers cut back while older generations maintain or increase their holiday budgets. These dynamics underscore the adaptability of both retailers and consumers, as the industry navigates volatility while still achieving record-breaking sales.

IADS Notes: Industry sources from NRF and Deloitte in November and September 2025 confirm the historic sales milestone and continued consumer resilience, while Forbes highlights the impact of tariffs, inflation, and reduced seasonal hiring on retail strategies. PwC’s September 2025 report emphasises generational divides and the growing importance of value-driven, cautious spending, illustrating how retailers are adapting to economic uncertainty while maintaining strong holiday performance.

NRF expects holiday sales to surpass $1 trillion for the first time in 2025