What: UK retail sales outperformed expectations in September, driven by increased demand for fashion, jewellery, and seasonal products.

Why it is important: This growth signals renewed consumer confidence and supports retailer optimism for the upcoming holiday season.

UK retail sales volumes rose by 0.5% in September, defying economists’ predictions of a decline and marking the fourth consecutive month of growth. This unexpected increase was led by strong performances in fashion and jewellery, as consumers responded to new season trends and discretionary purchases. Despite a wetter September, shoppers continued to spend, buoyed by a slight rise in consumer confidence, which reached its joint-highest level in over a year. Industry experts noted that while retail sales volumes are still below pre-pandemic highs, the current momentum is encouraging for both retailers and the government ahead of the Autumn Budget. Seasonal factors, such as the shift to autumnal purchases and preparations for upcoming holidays, played a significant role, with notable spikes in sales of advent calendars, wreaths, and ornaments. Retailers are optimistic for the peak shopping season, although many consumers remain budget-conscious, setting clear spending caps. The sector’s outlook is positive, with businesses focusing on sharp pricing, enhanced service, and robust stock management to capture further growth. 

IADS Notes: The unexpected rise in UK retail sales volumes in September 2025 aligns with the Financial Times’ report from October 2025, which highlighted sector resilience and shifting consumer behaviour. Retail Week’s March 2025 coverage confirmed strong non-food and department store performance, particularly in fashion and jewellery, while their September 2025 analysis emphasised the impact of weather and seasonal trends on sales. Strategies for the holiday season, including flexible staffing and AI-driven pricing, were detailed in BCG’s September 2025 report and WWD’s November 2024 article, underscoring the sector’s focus on agility and customer-centric innovation.

September UK retail sales in surprise rise