What: Salesforce forecasts a 4% global ecommerce growth for the 2025 holiday season, fueled by the rapid adoption of AI-powered shopping tools and changing consumer behaviors.

Why it is important: The surge in AI-driven shopping aligns with recent industry data showing widespread consumer adoption and significant revenue growth for retailers leveraging generative AI.

Salesforce’s 2025 holiday forecast anticipates global ecommerce sales reaching a record $1.25 trillion, a 4% increase driven by the rapid integration of AI recommendations and agents into the shopping journey. In the U.S., online sales are expected to rise by 2.1%, with AI projected to influence 21% of all holiday orders worldwide, totaling $263 billion in sales. The report highlights a dramatic shift in consumer behavior, as the use of AI chat assistants for product searches in the U.S. jumped 38% between May and August. Over half of AI users now rely on these tools for in-store search, and 87% trust AI recommendations. Conversion rates from AI channels are significantly higher than those from social media or traditional search, underscoring the effectiveness of AI in driving purchases. The forecast also notes a surge in secondhand sales, with 46% of shoppers planning to gift pre-owned items, and a continued preference for physical stores among Gen Z, who spend three times more in-store than online.

IADS Notes: The Salesforce forecast is reinforced by recent industry findings. As of September 2025, 38% of global consumers were using AI shopping tools, with 87% of companies adopting AI reporting revenue increases of at least 6%. Deloitte’s September 2025 outlook confirms global ecommerce spending surpassing $1.2 trillion, while widespread adoption of generative AI for product discovery and marketing has driven significant improvements in engagement and efficiency. The rise of secondhand sales and sustainability is mirrored by major retailers expanding circular business models, and Gen Z’s demand for seamless omnichannel experiences continues to reshape retail strategies.

Salesforce holiday forecast predicts 4% global ecommerce growth