What: February's retail sales data in the US presents a mixed and confusing picture, with conflicting trends depending on the measurement method used.

Why it is important: The contradictory data highlights the challenges in accurately assessing the retail landscape, which is crucial for understanding consumer behaviour and economic health.

February's retail performance presents a perplexing array of statistics, showing a slight increase of 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from January and a rise of 3.1% compared to February 2024. Conversely, year-over-year figures indicate a decline of 0.9% and a month-to-month decrease of 4% when unadjusted, as reported by the Census Bureau. This highlights the challenge of accurately assessing the retail landscape.

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, February 2025 retail sales reached $722.7 billion compared with $700.9 billion last year. However, unadjusted figures show that the retail and food services sector generated $639.1 billion in February 2025, a drop from $644.8 billion in the same month last year

IADS Notes: The discrepancy between seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data has led to criticism from industry experts. Paula Rosenblum, co-founder and managing partner at RSR Research, expressed frustration over the reliance on seasonally adjusted month-over-month data, questioning the rationale behind the Census Bureau's and National Retail Federation's use of such figures. It's worth noting that 2024 was a Leap Year, adding an extra day to February. On average, the retail and food services sector generated $22.2 billion daily in February 2024, compared to $22.8 billion in February 2025, indicating that consumer spending increased by nearly 3% daily this year compared to last, which aligns with inflation trends.

US February retail sales decline 0.9% year-over-year, but that’s just part of the story