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The IADS released the premiere edition of its Global Retail Risk Index in September 2025 with the aim of providing a strategic tool enabling regional comparisons to guide retail expansion and investment. With tariff and geopolitical shocks potentially creating new economic geographies, accurate and comparable data is the basis of cutting through the noise of new developments with unknown impacts.

Recent developments have exposed retailers to sudden tariffs, currency swings, regulatory shifts and store-level security threats. Trade wars and conflicts have increased freight costs, delayed shipments, and forced companies to reassess their sourcing strategies. Despite rising scepticism around economic judgments and forecasts in a world encountering significant structural change, reliable data forms the foundation of informed decision-making. Cross-disciplinary knowledge combined with ever-improving data and scenario tools enables decision-makers across sectors to contextualise relevant information for better decision-making. To this end, the Global Retail Risk Index uses open-source data from the World Bank for comparability and accuracy in indicator definitions.

This IADS Exclusive focuses on analysing each of the eight regions in the Global Retail Risk Index and contextualising key data, intra-region differences within aggregates and other developments not captured in hard figures. The complete Global Retail Risk Index Report can be found here.

  IADS Global Retail Risk Index: A quick overview   

The IADS Global Retail Risk Index collects data on risk factors affecting the retail sector globally. Providing a comparable overview of macroeconomic factors affecting the retail sector across eight regions and 31 indicators, this report aims to inform considerations for potential market expansion, safeguarding profitability and preserving supply-chain resilience.

A ranking methodology is used to compare regions with no absolute meaning for regional scores. Scores allow comparisons among regions, with lower scores signalling lower risk for the retail sector. A ‘risk acceptability’ assessment is created based on how comfortably a region can absorb additional risk for the retail sector. The key limitations are uneven data availability, a retail-specific subjective notion of ‘favourability’ and an inherently static nature given historical data in fast-moving political and economic conditions.

Findings

The report finds that based on this framework, the ranking of regions based on risk acceptability, from low to high risk, for the retail sector is as follows:

1. North America
2. East Asia and Pacific
3. European Union (including Switzerland and United Kingdom)
4. Latin America and the Caribbean
5. South Asia
6. Eastern Europe and Central Asia
7. Middle East and North Africa
8. Sub-Saharan Africa

Secure markets: from North America to Western Europe

North America: still the strongest

This region encompasses the US, Canada, and Bermuda and has the strongest performance across economic, business, logistics and infrastructure indicators.

The US and Canada are developed economies that face similar struggles of a high age-dependency ratio and potential labour force shortages. The dependency ratio, which reflects the number of dependents to the working age population, is high due to ageing societies combined with a decline in the working age population. Political developments around immigration reform affect an already strained workforce that could potentially lead to severe consequences in the long run.

The North American region has the lowest population density, reflecting key considerations around the number, size and distribution of stores, as well as digital connectivity and order fulfilment for retailers. Currently ranked last in renewable energy consumption, this is a clear growth opportunity across sectors. Early movers in the retail sector could benefit from subsidies on renewable energy adoption.

The global impact of US President Donald Trump can hardly be overstated. The imposition of tariffs and domestic policy changes has caused global ripples that are being contended with at every level. Major department stores such as Macy’s, Nordstrom and Dillard’s are already hiking prices across categories to combat tariff pressures. Despite sudden policy changes by Trump, long-term impacts will depend on other countries’ and the private sector's responses, and remain to be seen.

Overall, North American markets are still the most favourable for retail risk acceptance given developed economies, massive capital, and US political hegemony. In general, its performance on business, economic, infrastructure and logistics indicators is the best compared to other regions. However, incoming policy changes can further impact international retail expansion in the region. In an uncertain world, the hegemon is the safest choice.

East Asia and the Pacific: rebounding strong

The East Asia and Pacific region has the second-most favourable risk acceptability for the retail sector. Countries in this region can be divided into three categories: developed economies such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea, developing economies such as China, Thailand, and Cambodia, and several Small Island Developing States (SIDS).

Broadly, the region has top rankings in economic, business, and supply chain indicators with improvements possible in full literacy and electricity access, and female workforce participation. Most East Asian countries, known to be saving economies, also showed positive real interest rates encouraging consumer saving with the Chinese government injecting a 300 billion yuan consumption stimulus to boost consumer confidence. Performance in climate indicators overall can be improved, with climate change affecting tropical countries and SIDS worse than others.

The developed retail heavyweights in the region (Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong) are experiencing varying performances. Japan saw record tourist arrivals but the strengthening yen has led to a drop in spending. Retail sales in Singapore fluctuated in the first half of 2025 but are beginning to see a rise. After over a year of consecutive months of decline in the retail sector, Hong Kong is finally recovering however with mixed effects from tourist spending and currency effects. These countries also performed well on economic, business, and supply chain indicators, as well as social and infrastructure indicators, which enable a developed retail sector.

The Chinese economy is struggling due to weak domestic demand, a sluggish real estate sector, and ongoing deflationary pressures that limit consumer and business growth. It is also reeling from a tariff war with the US and required policy intervention to stimulate domestic consumption so that Chinese retail sales began to rise again. Chinese tourists remain a key consumer group in neighbouring countries being specifically targeted by retailers to encourage spending in Hong Kong, South Korea and Thailand.

Developing Southeast Asian countries and SIDS performed worse on risk indicators. Full access to electricity and complete literacy, which form the basis of organised economic activity, still need to be achieved in several countries. Furthermore, Thailand was wracked by severe floods this year, and its tourism challenges have been compounded by its ongoing border conflict with Cambodia. SIDS face similar challenges as given its limited data availability, market capitalisation and domestic credit performance is suboptimal. They are also one of the worst affected by climate crises with over a third of Tuvaluans applying for a climate refuge visa to Australia, marking the world’s first climate refugees.

Despite this grouping including economies of extreme sizes, the East Asia and Pacific region is low risk relative to other regions. While large economies such as Japan, Australia, and Singapore are the nuclei of the region, smaller economies rely on them geographically and economically to differing extents.

European Union, Switzerland and the UK: stable fundamentals, volatile politics

The European Union, along with Switzerland and the UK, is the third-most risk-acceptable region. This region is one of the most cohesive, with indicator divergences being less pronounced than in other regions. This is due to euro, including uniform monetary policy among euro countries, and the basic requirements that must be met to join the European Union. While Switzerland and the UK are not part of the EU, they are similar to some EU countries in terms of size and GDP.

Favourable indicators for this region are economic indicators, including FDI, demographic indicators, such as female workforce participation and population density, and supply chain risks, like logistics performance index and container port traffic. Climate risk indicators are also favourable, ranking second in forest coverage and proportion of the population exposed to PM2.5 air pollution.

Like other developed economies, the European Union faces a high dependency ratio and an ageing workforce, with persistent concerns over inflation and unemployment in certain member states. Political instability, driven by US policy shifts and the war in Ukraine, is causing widespread disruptions. Recent turmoil in major countries like France has escalated uncertainty for both consumers and retailers, with Primark, for example, bracing for lower sales and potential tax hikes, further dampening confidence and spending. Overall, the EU, Switzerland and UK region sees high risk acceptability due to its favourable performance on relevant indicators despite current political shocks.

Cautious promise: Latin America and South Asia

Latin America and the Caribbean: smack-dab middle

Consisting of large developing states like Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, smaller developing countries like Peru and Ecuador, and several SIDS, Latin America and the Caribbean lies perfectly in the middle of the risk acceptability spectrum. While it is the best performer on climate indicators, the region also faces significant challenges. Demographic indicators in this region see mixed performance; while the age dependency ratio is favourable, gaps exist in literacy, female workforce participation and population density. There are also significant gaps in infrastructure and supply chain indicators.

The region is rife with income inequality, which in turn affects consumer spending and the mix of products demanded. High income inequality polarises consumer demand, benefiting luxury and discount retailers while squeezing the mid-market. This reduces overall spending power, heightens volatility, and requires retailers to adapt pricing and positioning to navigate a fractured market.

Turbulence across Latin America and the Caribbean, driven by economic instability, governance issues, and social unrest, pose hurdles for retailers. Former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro was recently convicted of a coup, which will have further consequences for the biggest economy of the region depending on Trump’s response beyond high tariffs and sanctions. Venezuela’s hyperinflation and supply chain breakdowns, alongside a dictatorship regime in El Salvador increases crime-related risks and policy uncertainty around the region and require retail supply chain resilience in these volatile markets.

South Asia: dense markets and diverse challenges

This regional classification consists of only eight countries but represents a huge percentage of population due to the inclusion of highly populated countries such as India, Bangladesh and Pakistan. The region tends towards low risk acceptability due to insufficient FDI flows, low female workforce participation, and vast unorganised economic sectors. Performance on supply chain and infrastructure indicators needs improvement as well.

One of the key advantages of the region is high population density, which can be attractive for physical retail locations while acknowledging high urban digital penetration. For example, India’s fast-growing luxury market and high-spending consumer base make it a prime destination for retail expansion as evidenced by Galeries Lafayette launching its first Indian store in Mumbai later this year and a second one in New Delhi next year.

Geopolitically, the South Asian region faces tensions between nuclear powers India and Pakistan, border disputes with China, and internal instability in Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar. These dynamics can potentially create trade disruptions and impact consumer confidence, where careful market entry strategies must be balanced with growth opportunities.

High-stakes: Eastern Europe, MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa

Eastern Europe and Central Asia: adapting amid geopolitical shocks

This regional classification consists of several small and developing countries not part of the EU. The region is the worst performer on infrastructure and supply chain indicators. Performance in climate indicators, including forest coverage and renewable energy adoption, is towards the bottom as well. The key strengths of the region are high literacy, universal internet and electricity access and regulatory efficiency.

Geopolitical and economic instability has intensified in Eastern Europe and Central Asia as a result of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Western sanctions against Russia and redirected trade flows have created labour shortages and forced many economies to adapt. Retail expansion in this region needs careful planning due to mixed performance across indicators and the prevalence of geopolitical crises.

Middle East and North Africa: oil-rich expansion vs. vulnerable markets

The Middle East and North African region include high-income countries like Qatar, Oman, and the UAE, as well as lower-income countries such as Morocco, Algeria and Lebanon, among others. The region ranks next-to-last in terms of risk acceptability due to mixed performance on indicators.

This region is characterised by extreme inequality between high-income Gulf countries where retail expansion is not just supported but encouraged, contrasting with poorer Northern African countries, where economic, infrastructure and supply chain performance is poor. Overall, the region is strong in inflation control, mobile connectivity and market capitalisation. However, gaps exist in full literacy, female labour participation and environmental resilience. Ongoing conflicts in Gaza, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon have deepened instability and intensified humanitarian crises with regional repercussions.

Sub-Saharan Africa: high promise amid structural barriers

This regional classification includes several low-income countries, with regional powers being Nigeria and South Africa. The region exhibits the lowest risk acceptability as it faces significant gaps in development indicators, even given high regional inequalities.

Sub-Saharan Africa ranks the highest in renewable energy consumption and female workforce participation. It has a high dependency ratio due to a large chunk of its population being children, indicating incoming growth of its workforce. Retail, being a highly feminised sector, also benefits from high female labour participation. However, the region faces a dearth of FDI, market capitalisation and domestic credit. Infrastructure indicators and supply chain connectivity must be improved to encourage large-scale retail expansion.

Widespread violence and crises in sub-Saharan Africa, such as insurgencies in the Sahel, ethnic unrest in Nigeria, hyperinflation in Zimbabwe, and instability in Congo, further threaten supply chains, deter investment and dampen consumer confidence. This is perhaps the region with the most potential but with insufficient support structures at present.

Conclusion: resilience through data

The current global economic scenario is marked by slow growth, persistent inflation in some regions, and elevated geopolitical tensions that have disrupted trade flows and weighed on consumer sentiment. Retailers face ongoing headwinds from tariff escalations, volatile prices, and political uncertainty, requiring resilient supply chains, proactive risk management, and strategic market focus to defend margins and capture growth.

The debut edition of the IADS Global Retail Risk Index underscores the need for retailers to embrace data-driven decision-making amid a changing landscape. The Index reveals that risk acceptability varies sharply by region, with North America, East Asia, and Europe remaining the safest bets, while Latin America, Africa, and parts of Asia face volatility from inflation, social unrest, infrastructure gaps, and conflict. Across all markets, retailers must contend with supply chain fragility, fluctuating consumer demand, and new regulatory hurdles, but those leveraging reliable data, scenario analysis, and adaptive strategies are best positioned to pursue expansion and safeguard profitability amidst global uncertainty.

As digital adaptation and sustainability grow in importance, future success will depend on leveraging new scenario tools, tracking risk indicators, and remaining responsive to regulatory shifts and consumer trends. Retailers should prioritise continuous risk assessment, diversify sourcing strategies, and invest in regional intelligence to anticipate and mitigate disruptions before they escalate. Going forward, future editions of the IADS Global Retail Risk Index will allow multi-year comparisons, further empowering retail leaders to strengthen resilience, safeguard profitability, and identify new opportunities in an era defined by uncertainty and transformation.

For complete detailed data, interpretation and indicator rankings by region, please access the full IADS Global Retail Risk Index Report 2025 here.

Credits: IADS (Anchita Ranka)