What: Euromonitor reviews the various scenarios that might take place in 2022.

Why it is important: Economic forecast are not only depending on the Covid-19 and its variants evolution, but also on the global production and logistical bottleneck which should last well until the end of 2022, as well as the situation in China, which is facing an increasing risk of “hard landing”.

Euromonitor reviews the situation for Q4 2021 and 2022, taking into account the various scenarios that are attached to the situation with Covid-19, China, and global consumption.

It is expected of course that the pandemic will continue to affect the recovery due to the slow vaccination progress in some countries, which favour the appearance of new variants (it is expected that vaccination in developing economies should remain below 50% in 2023 as a whole).

In terms of economic outlook, the supply chain bottleneck should ease in the second half of 2022, or even in 2023. Meanwhile, the risk of a Chinese “hard landing” has increased.

Taking all these elements into account, in the optimistic scenario, global GDP should increase by +6.6% in 2022 (USA +6.1%, China +7%, Europe +6.6%, developing economies +7.1%) while in the first pessimistic scenario (linked to Covid-19) it should reach +0.1% (USA +0.3%, China +2%, Europe -0.7%, developing economies +0.3%) and in the second pessimistic scenario (linked to a Chinese hard landing), it should reach +3.4% (USA +3.7%, China +2%, Europe +4.2%, developing economies +3.3%).

The report also includes projections in terms of central bank interest rates forecasts, as well as national projections country by country.

Global Economic Forecasts 2021

Global Economic forecasts 2022