What: Coresight has compiled a comprehensive set of data in order to understand the actual situation of retail in China.

Why it is important: Whenever the consumption in China will speed up, the world will feel the heat both in terms of international presence of Chinese tourists, but also in terms of products being sucked in the country, and therefore potentially hampering other markets. However, Coresight does not see such an event taking place as soon as the recuperation is slowed.

Coresight reviews the Chinese retail market, estimated to grow by 1.5% in 2022 to $5.9tn, and by 4.2% in 2023. The expectations are lower than a few months ago, due to the impact of the zero Covid policy, the shrinking population and the youth unemployment rate (23% in August 2022). In addition, the market remains fragmented, with a clear domination by the e-commerce companies (Alibaba and JD.Com representing 75% of the total online market).

For these reasons, the analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the speed of recuperation, which will of course have several repercussions in the rest of the world.

The report also provides some key numbers about a selection of national players. Coresight expects that omnichannel shopping is only going to increase even more, as this is a perfect answer to the Zero-Covid policy, especially in lower tier cities and rural areas. In addition, they recommend to watch the rise of domestic brands which are harnessing both a growing nationalistic pride and the departure or store closures from several international brands, such as H&M, Ikea, or Pull&Bear.

China retail market outlook