What: Global trade is projected to grow 2.5% annually through 2034, despite increasing geopolitical fragmentation and policy shifts.

Why it is important: The resilience of global trade, despite geopolitical challenges, signals ongoing opportunities for retail expansion and innovation in emerging markets.

Global trade is expected to maintain a steady growth rate of 2.5% per year through 2034, even as the world faces rising geopolitical fragmentation and significant policy shifts. According to BCG’s scenario analysis, the future of trade will be shaped by a patchwork of regional nodes, with the US, China, Plurilateralists, and BRICS+ each adopting distinct approaches to trade. The US is projected to see a decline in its share of global goods trade due to higher tariffs and a focus on domestic production, while China is set to strengthen its trade ties with the Global South and BRICS+ nations. The Plurilateralists, a group of advanced and emerging economies committed to rules-based trade, are expected to deepen their relationships and diversify away from the US and China. Meanwhile, BRICS+ countries excluding China will expand their trade networks, and the Global South will become increasingly important as both a market and supplier. These shifts will require retailers to rethink their sourcing, supply chain, and market strategies to remain competitive in a reorganized global landscape.

IADS Notes: The BCG scenario analysis from January 2026 aligns with earlier findings from January and April 2025, which emphasized the need for retailers to develop agile, regionally-adapted supply chains in response to shifting trade patterns and persistent tariffs. Reports from September 2025 and January 2025 further confirm that the rise of the Global South and Asia’s emerging business corridors are creating new opportunities for retail expansion and innovation, reinforcing that global trade is reorganizing rather than retreating.

Resilient global trade could grow 2.5% annually through 2034 despite rising geopolitical fragmentation

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