What: Boston Consulting Group analyses how evolving tariffs, regulatory changes, and USMCA negotiations are prompting companies to rethink sourcing, manufacturing, and stakeholder engagement strategies.

Why it is important: The findings underscore that operational agility, scenario planning, and stakeholder engagement are now essential for organisations to maintain competitiveness in a fragmented trade environment.

This Boston Consulting Group article explores the implications of the upcoming USMCA review and the broader shift toward a fragmented global trade landscape. Despite recent tariff hikes and a proliferation of bilateral deals, trade within North America remains robust, with the USMCA providing a foundation for integrated supply chains and duty-free access—though this stability is now under review. The article outlines several scenarios for the future of North American trade, ranging from targeted updates to the USMCA, to a complete renegotiation or even a shift to bilateral agreements. Each scenario carries significant uncertainty, as countries may still impose unilateral tariffs or regulatory changes with little notice. The authors recommend that companies establish tariff command centres, invest in scenario planning, and redesign sourcing and manufacturing networks to preserve flexibility and margins. Proactive stakeholder engagement and a solid fact base are also emphasised as critical for navigating negotiations and potential disruptions. Ultimately, the article argues that those who prepare now with robust contingency strategies will be best positioned to seize opportunities and mitigate risks as North American trade rules evolve.

IADS Notes: The looming renegotiation of the USMCA and the evolving patchwork of North American trade rules are driving a fundamental transformation in business strategy and operations. As highlighted by The Robin Report in September 2025, persistent tariffs and policy shifts have forced companies to overhaul supply chains, embrace AI-powered analytics, and prioritise scenario planning to navigate rising costs and declining confidence. BCG’s May 2025 guidance on tariff command centres and McKinsey’s April 2025 analysis of geopolitical nerve centres both underscore the necessity for dedicated, cross-functional teams capable of real-time monitoring, supplier diversification, and rapid response to trade volatility. The January 2026 BCG report further emphasises that organisations are moving beyond just-in-time models, investing in diversified supply chains and robust contingency strategies to manage operational risk in an increasingly fragmented trade environment. McKinsey’s additional guidance from April 2025 reinforces the need for AI-driven analytics and proactive stakeholder engagement, as only a small fraction of companies have successfully scaled these capabilities. Collectively, these sources confirm that success in the new era of North American trade will depend on agility, resilience, and the ability to anticipate and communicate around complex regulatory and market shifts

Preparing for a new era in North American trade