What: National Retail Federation’s chief economist Jack Kleinhenz is not betting on a recession happening this year.

Why it is important: U.S. economic growth is slowing, and consumer confidence is lower than it was pre-pandemic due to a tanking stock market and conflict in Ukraine. The National Retail Federation’s research pegs the risk over the next year to be low. Forecasts for 2023 remain hesitant. Jack Kleinhenz says, “Regardless of a prospect of a downturn or whether it will meet the threshold of a recession, the consumer outlook over the next few months remains favorable.” Adding that consumers remain financially healthy.

NRF predicts a recession is unlikely for 2022 but forecasts a potential recession in 2023