What: NRF forecasts US holiday retail sales will grow 4.2% in November and December to $1.013 trillion, up from 3.1% growth and $972 billion last year.

Why it is important: Last year's NRF forecast of 3.7% to 4.2% overshot the 3.1% outcome, so this year's 4.2% should be read as a projection that depends on consumers absorbing higher gas prices and inflation.

The National Retail Federation forecasts that US retail sales in November and December will grow 4.2% over 2025, reaching $1.013 trillion. Last year's holiday sales rose 3.1% over 2024, totalling $972 billion. NRF's CEO Matthew Shay said the forecast reflects confidence that consumers will prioritise the holiday season while remaining mindful of their budgets, with retailers prepared to meet demand through competitive prices, value and choices for every budget.

NRF chief economist Mark Mathews said the season opens with strong spending momentum, with consumers remaining the bright spot in the economy. He cautioned that inflation, rising gas prices and pressure on household spending will affect consumers differently across income groups.

Retailers are expected to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, in line with last year's estimated 356,000, as they remain cautious amid higher gas prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates and elevated consumer debt. The forecast draws on economic modelling using consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previous monthly retail sales releases. It excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants and defines the holiday season as 1 November to 31 December.

IADS Notes: Last year's forecast, published by NRF in November 2025, projected holiday sales above $1 trillion for the first time, with growth of 3.7% to 4.2% and temporary hiring at its lowest since 2008. The actual 2025 outturn cited in the new release, $972 billion and growth of 3.1%, came in below that range, which makes this year's 4.2% forecast a clear step up from last year's realised growth. The 2026 outlook builds on NRF's full-year projection of 4.4% growth to $5.6 trillion, underpinned by low unemployment, larger tax refunds and easing inflation, with higher-income households driving most of the growth (WWD, March 2026). Fuel costs have since become the main source of pressure: Bloomberg in July 2026 reported June sales up 0.2%, or 0.7% excluding gasoline, with consumers described as resilient but pressured by inflation and gas prices, and warned that renewed US-Iran tensions could reverse the relief. Visa in October 2026 then showed September pump prices up 37.6% year on year, with discretionary spending momentum still below expansion territory at 99.0. Cautious seasonal hiring is not confined to the US: Drapers in September 2026 reported John Lewis Partnership recruiting 10,400 Christmas staff, down from last year's record 13,700.

NRF forecasts 2026 holiday sales growth as consumers remain resilient