What: Economists are indecisive on when or if a recession will happen, an NRF economists predicts that downturn won’t be severe enough to become an official recession.

Why it is important: Even if there isn’t an official recession, consumers still feel like they’re living in one and struggling with rising costs.

Economists are still pondering the possibility of a recession. While many opinions and predictions circulate, consumers are still behaving as if there is one with inflation and rising interest rates.

The chief economist for the NRF states he doesn’t expect the downturn to be severe enough to become an official recession. Morgan Stanley also doesn’t forecast a recession in their outlook but has growth falling about 0.3% in 2023.

On the contrary, KPMG predicts a recession in the first half of 2023 for the US economy and expects to see negative GDP in the first and second quarters of the year.

The economy is expected to see slight growth this year as consumers cope with inflation and high interest rates. In 2022, consumer spending grew 2.8% in 2022 but dropped 0.2% in November and another 0.3% in December. Overall, retail sales dropped 1.1% in December.

NRF economist downplays recession possibility