What: Due to Covid-19 restrictions, it is estimated that CNY-related domestic trips will fall from the usual 3 billion people to 1 bn.

Why it is important: Analysts do not see it as a major threat to sales: at worst, Q2 2021 will compensate for the losses incurred during this traditional high season.

New pikes in the virus in China, leading to local lockdown, will impact domestic travels related to CNY by an estimate of -2 billion travellers. This is expected to impact luxury brands which see China as their sole growth reservoir at this stage.

However, this is seen as a temporary and inconsequential blip by duty-free operators, as this will not hamper the long-term perspective of an otherwise more than the healthy market. On top of that, e-commerce and local forms of revenge-spending will probably help to compensate for the lost opportunities very soon in the course of 2021.

Chinese New Year Sales Hang in the Balance