What: Escalating missile and drone attacks on Middle East airports and airspace, culminating in a deadly strike on Riyadh's main airport, are shrinking the air routes linking Europe and Asia.

Why it is important: Longer, costlier flights and higher jet fuel prices turn a regional security crisis into a lasting cost and footfall risk for retailers reliant on international travel.

Commercial aviation has become a deliberate target in conflicts worldwide. Since the U.S. and Israel started the Iran war in February, major airports in Dubai, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and elsewhere have been hit, with parked aircraft, fuel tanks and air-traffic control infrastructure damaged. On 10 October, a Houthi missile strike on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport killed at least 12 people, injured more than 300 and led to more than 1,000 flight cancellations.

The U.S., U.K. and Australia are advising citizens to avoid the Riyadh airport, while France, Canada and Germany warn that flying over all or large parts of Saudi Arabia is no longer safe. Saudi airspace had been one of the two remaining primary corridors between Europe and Asia, following the loss of Ukrainian and Russian skies in 2022 and of Iraqi airspace this year.

Airlines are now relying on a narrow, congested route over Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, which carries its own risks. Virgin Atlantic has routed its Mumbai to London service via Central Asia since late September, and Qantas now flies Perth to London with a fuel stop in Singapore, adding up to four hours. Jet fuel trades at about twice last year's price.

IADS Notes: The strikes on Saudi airports extend a disruption to travel-dependent retail that began in the first weeks of the Iran war. Airport stores and duty-free outlets across the Middle East recorded sharp falls in footfall and sales as regional and international travel was disrupted (Retail Week, March 2026), while luxury sales in Dubai and Abu Dhabi dropped by up to 50% amid store closures and collapsing tourist traffic in what had been luxury's fastest-growing region (Reuters, April 2026). The impact reaches well beyond the Gulf: airspace closures and travel restrictions were already costing the Middle East at least $600 million a day in visitor spending, with tourism identified as a critical driver of department store sales worldwide (The Economist, March 2026). Costs have compounded in parallel, with oil prices up more than 50% and jet fuel in Europe at unprecedented levels (Inside Retail, March 2026), alongside disrupted shipping routes, delayed inventory and eroding margins for European retailers (Forbes, March 2026). The near-collapse of the Saudi corridor, one of the last two primary air routes between Europe and Asia, now means longer and more expensive journeys for the long-haul travellers on whom department store tourist revenues depend.

Air travel emerges as a dangerous front line in global conflicts