What: A scenario in which AI-driven automation and agentic commerce fundamentally reshape the retail industry, leading to widespread job displacement, business model disruption, and changes in consumer spending and payment systems.

Why it is important: This scenario is important because it illustrates how AI-driven job losses and wage compression could erode the consumer base that underpins retail demand.

This scenario explores the profound consequences of accelerated AI adoption on the retail industry, envisioning a near future where automation and agentic commerce drive sweeping changes across the sector. As AI capabilities rapidly advance, companies reduce their reliance on human labor, resulting in significant white-collar job losses and wage compression. The resulting decline in disposable income leads to a contraction in discretionary consumer spending, undermining the foundation of retail demand. Traditional business models built on brand loyalty, habitual purchasing, and consumer inertia are disrupted as AI agents optimize every transaction, eroding established moats and compressing margins. Payment systems also undergo transformation, with stablecoins and real-time digital transactions replacing conventional card-based methods. The feedback loop of labor displacement, declining demand, and business model disruption creates systemic risks for retailers, who must adapt to a landscape where the very existence of a robust consumer base is in question.

IADS Notes: By October 2025, the retail landscape was already showing signs of strain, as detailed in Forbes’ "Amazon and Target job cuts reveal how AI is reshaping the retail workforce," where automation and AI-driven restructuring led to significant job losses and heightened uncertainty among employees. This sense of disruption was echoed in Le Monde’s coverage, "AI is already disrupting the job market, predictions of 'apocalypse jobs' increasing in the US," which captured the growing anxiety as AI adoption accelerated across the sector. As the year progressed, the emergence of agentic commerce began to shift the balance of power, with the Financial Times in November 2025 describing how "AI is a double edge sword for retailers," and Journal du Net in September 2025 illustrating how AI-driven platforms were prompting brands to overhaul their digital strategies. Meanwhile, the payments ecosystem was undergoing rapid transformation, as highlighted in the BCG "Global Payments Report 2025" and Visa’s May 2025 announcement of new AI-enabled payment solutions, both pointing to the rise of stablecoins and real-time transactions. These shifts unfolded against a backdrop of economic headwinds, with Forbes in September 2025 noting that weak job growth and rising unemployment were compelling retailers to rethink their operational models and consumer engagement in an increasingly AI-mediated environment.

AI, retail and the US in 2028: a scenario