Key Takeaways

• The warning from the barometer is European, not American. European investment projects in the US held flat at 682 in H1 2026 (680 a year earlier), while intra-European investment fell around 30% between 2024 and 2026 and US investment into Europe keeps declining. European companies are investing less overall, and they cut in Europe first.
• Transatlantic investment now runs on expanding existing sites, not on new entrants. Close to 60% of H1 2026 European manufacturing projects in the US came from companies already operating there. In the reverse
  direction, US manufacturing investment in Europe (down 7%) is also mostly extensions of existing sites, while business services are down 40%. Incumbents are reinvesting, but neither continent is attracting many newcomers.
• US customers, more than policy, are pulling European production across the Atlantic. Manufacturing projects have risen four years running as European firms shift from selling in the US to producing there. The main drivers are supply-chain disruption, tariffs and US buyers requiring European suppliers to manufacture locally, with some suppliers told they would lose business otherwise. Investment is moving from the coastal states to the Midwest and the South.
• Tariffs are the top barrier, but instability costs more than the duties themselves. The effect depends on timing: tariffs slowed projects not yet committed and sped up committed ones, with one plant opening moved from end2026 to the start of the year. It also depends on sector: European automotive projects are being postponed, while chemicals projects are growing because gas is around three times cheaper in Texas than in Europe.
• In AI infrastructure alone, US capital flowing into Europe dwarfs the reverse flow. In value terms, US investment in European cloud, datacentre and AI infrastructure is roughly eight times the flow from Europe to the
  US: few projects, very large tickets. The presenters framed the imbalance as a question of European digital sovereignty.

Click below to read the full recap:

IADS Conference Report - European American Chamber of Commerce: key findings of the  2026 Transatlantic Expansion Barometer

Transatlantic Expansion Barometer 2026.pdf