What: In Carlo Masala's "If Russia Wins: A Scenario", he presents a 120-page geopolitical thriller set in 2028 where a fatigued West has pressured Ukraine into territorial concessions, emboldening Russia to test NATO's Article 5 commitment through a calculated hybrid incursion into Estonia, exposing the alliance's critical vulnerability: not military hardware, but political will and democratic paralysis in the face of hybrid warfare.

Why it is important: For retailers and European leaders, this scenario demonstrates that geopolitical stability is now a primary operational risk—supply chains through Eastern Europe and the Baltics are far more vulnerable than traditional models suggest, requiring a shift from "just-in-time" efficiency to "just-in-case" resilience, with urgent need for stress-testing strategies against renewed shocks, higher defense spending reducing consumer purchasing power, and the reality that corporate neutrality is becoming impossible in a polarised world where business continuity depends on democratic resilience.

Book Review: If Russia wins, a scenario