What: The Euromonitor 2026 economic outlook forecasts continued global economic uncertainty, with inflation, interest rates, and consumer confidence shaping retail growth.

Why it is important: Persistent uncertainty and regional differences underscore the importance of balancing digital and physical channels to sustain growth.

The Euromonitor 2026 economic outlook projects a challenging environment for the global retail industry, shaped by ongoing inflation, fluctuating interest rates, and varying levels of consumer confidence across regions. Retailers are expected to navigate a landscape marked by uneven economic recovery, with some markets experiencing stronger growth while others face persistent headwinds. Inflationary pressures and currency volatility are likely to impact pricing strategies and profitability, compelling retailers to remain agile and responsive to local market conditions. Consumer behavior is anticipated to shift in response to economic forecasts, with value-seeking and cautious spending patterns becoming more pronounced. As a result, retailers will need to balance investments in digital innovation with the continued relevance of physical stores, ensuring a seamless omnichannel experience that meets evolving customer expectations. Strategic risk management and operational flexibility will be essential for retailers aiming to sustain growth and maintain competitiveness in this uncertain economic climate.

IADS Notes: The Euromonitor outlook echoes findings from Visa (January 2025), WWD (April 2025), and BCG (June and September 2025), which emphasise the impact of inflation, tariffs, and weak consumer confidence on retail performance. Reports from The Robin Report (September 2025) and BCG (September 2025) further highlight the sector’s shift toward scenario planning, digital-physical balance, and experiential retail as key strategies for resilience and growth amid ongoing volatility.

Economic outlook for 2026: Global forecasts and insights